Ranked Teams Ain't Got Nothin' On Wake

#8 Wake Forest 86, #25 Florida State 63
Despite struggling a lot in recent games against lesser ACC foes, Wake Forest now moves to 4-0 against ranked teams this season. This isn't really as big of a surprise as you might think, because Wake Forest is such a young and immature team. They get up to play the big boys, and they struggle when they don't play with high intensity against lesser foes. As they gain experience and maturity they'll do a better job of taking care of business and winning games they're supposed to win. And if they can do that, a 1 seed is still a possibility for the Demon Deacons. As for Florida State, they'd still be a certain Tournament team if the season ended now, but they haven't yet wrapped up that at-large bid. The resume is really good all around, and they've got great computer numbers, so I think Florida State is in excellent shape if they just get to 8-8. If they get to 9-7 they're probably a lock for the Tournament, even if they go one-and-done in the ACC tournament. With a relatively easy next few games, this means that Florida State could potentially wrap up their Tournament bid before the end of the month.

Tennessee 69, Vanderbilt 50
Tennessee was really struggling for a while there, but they now seem to have the defensive consistency needed to be a good team. When they're playing good half court defense, they're really tough for anybody to beat. South Carolina may be the hottest team in the SEC, but they're going to run into reality at some point. Right now it seems clear that Tennessee is the most consistently good team in the SEC right now, and they've got to be the solid favorite to take the conference. On the other side of the coin, Vanderbilt is running out of time to make a run at an at-large bid. On its face, the 15-9 overall record and the 4-6 SEC record don't look that bad, but Vandy is 0-5 against the RPI Top 50, and their losses include Illinois-Chicago and Georgia Tech. Their RPI has slipped to 102nd, Sagarin has them 86th and Pomeroy has them 89th. I can't remember the last time a team earned an at-large bid with a Sagarin rating outside of 50th, so Vanderbilt needs to go on a big winning streak right now if they're going to salvage a Tournament bid. They can afford at most one more loss in their final six games. Otherwise there's only a Georgia-style run in the SEC touranament standing between them and the NIT, or possibly just a trip home without any postseason at all.

Maryland 83, Virginia Tech 73
When in doubt, always project the more desperate team to win a game. In this particular game, there's no question that Maryland was the more desperate team. Virginia Tech is a real bubble team and certainly is really hurt by this loss, but they will still have plenty of chances ahead to earn that at-large bid. Maryland, on the other hand, is really in a desperate position. This win pulls them back to 5-5 in the ACC as well as a more respectable 5-7 against the RPI Top 100. They have that really nice win over Michigan State, but that's pretty much wiped out by the loss to Morgan State. All of the computer rankings, even after this victory, have them around 55-60th in the nation. So they wouldn't be a Tournament team if the season ended now, but they're within shouting distance. They've got a great opportunity ahead because Duke, North Carolina and Wake Forest are all coming to town, meaning that they'll get a great chance to earn a marquee victory in the ACC. With at least one win during those three games, and at least an 8-8 overall ACC record, I think Maryland will have an excellent at-large scenario entering the ACC tournament. Virginia Tech actually has a weaker out of conference resume than Maryland, so I think they've actually got to get to 9-7. At 6-4 they've got to split their final six games. They also have plenty of chances for a marquee win, with Duke, North Carolina and Florida State coming to town.