Sunday, February 15, 2009

W-4 BP65

Sorry for the lack of recaps tonight. It was Valentine's Day, after all. I'll try to catch up Sunday. In the meantime, here's the new BP65 to chew on. Next one comes out after Wednesday night's games:


1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. OKLAHOMA (BIG 12)
1. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)

2. UConn
2. Duke
2. Louisville
2. UCLA (PAC-10)

3. MEMPHIS (C-USA)
3. Clemson
3. Villanova
3. Wake Forest

4. Kansas
4. GONZAGA (WCC)
4. Missouri
4. Arizona State

5. Marquette
5. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
5. TENNESSEE (SEC)
5. Illinois

6. Florida State
6. West Virginia
6. Washington
6. Texas

7. Syracuse
7. LSU
7. Purdue
7. UTAH STATE (WAC)

8. BYU (MWC)
8. California
8. BUTLER (HORIZON)
8. Dayton

9. Utah
9. Boston College
9. Wisconsin
9. Florida

10. Minnesota
10. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
10. South Carolina
10. UNLV

11. Arizona
11. Kentucky
11.Miami (Fl)
11. Ohio State

12. SIENA (MAAC)
12. Kansas State
12. Saint Mary's
12. Georgetown

13. CREIGHTON (MVC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

14. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. VMI (BIG SOUTH)
14. CORNELL (IVY)
14. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)

15. BINGHAMTON (AMERICA EAST)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)

16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Providence, Baylor, Oklahoma State, UAB, San Diego State, USC

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Maryland, Rhode Island, Temple, Notre Dame, Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, Texas A&M, George Mason, Northeastern, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Mississippi State

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
NC State, Duquesne, Saint Joseph's, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Hofstra, Houston, Tulsa, Niagara, Buffalo, Stanford, Washington State, Auburn, Mississippi, Vanderbilt

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
La Salle, Saint Louis, St. John's, Iowa, Iowa State, Texas Tech, James Madison, Central Florida, UTEP, Cleveland State, Wisconsin-GB, Evansville, Wyoming, Alabama, Arkansas, Arkansas-LR, Portland, Boise State
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7 comments:

Anonymous said...

OK. Let's go back to the UConn (which you list as a 2 seed) vs. Michigan State (a 1 seed) comparison.

Let's project that UConn without Dyson now loses both games to Pittsburgh, wins their other 3 regular season games, then gets knocked out of the BigEast tourney in the semifinals. That gives them 4 losses, 2 of them to a #1 seed. Their top 25 wins would be over Miami, Gonzaga, West Virginia, Villanova, Louisville and Marquette.

Let's project that Michigan State wins out in the regular season (which I don't think they'll do) and wins the conference tourney. They would then have 4 losses, to UNC, Maryland, Northwestern & Penn State. Their Top 25 wins would be over Texas, Kansas, Purdue & Illinois.

Are you saying that after that, Michigan State would get awarded a 1 seed over UConn? Really? Or are you saying that UConn will collapse even more drastically than that?

February 15, 2009 2:47 PM
Jeff said...

First of all, yes I expect UConn to lose at least one more game besides the Pitt games. And remember, the Selection Committee really likes teams that finish well, and sweeping the regular season and conference tournaments in a major conference always get you a good seed. That's why I still have UCLA at a 2 and Tennessee at a 5, because I'm projecting them to sweep their regular season and conference titles. All three of those teams (including Michigan State) will drop in seed if they fail to win their regular season AND conference titles.

I expect Michigan State to have a much better record over their final ten games than UConn.

Remember, UConn has always had a problem with offense. I don't see how they're going to keep up with some of the high powered offenses in the Big East.


If UConn only loses to Pitt the rest of the season then they'll get a 1 seed.

February 15, 2009 3:29 PM
Jeff said...

I do want to add that I think five teams have separated from the field. Duke, Clemson and Wake Forest have obviously all fallen back, as have Louisville, Marquette, UCLA and Xavier. I don't think Memphis can get in from such a bad conference without the marquee wins they had last year. So I think we're most likely down to five teams for four 1 seeds.

Right now, Michigan State has the worst of the five resumes. If UConn can split with Pitt and win all of the rest of their regular season games, I think they keep that 1 seed. But right now I'm thinking that UConn is in a bit of trouble.

That said, Michigan State can only get a 1 seed if they sweep the regular season and tournament titles. The regular season title looks pretty safe, but an upset in the conference tournament will lock them into a 2 seed, and would put the Big East in the driver's seat for two top seeds.

February 15, 2009 4:06 PM
Anonymous said...

i see you have Tennessee at a 5 and LSU at a 7. similar pomeroy ratings in the same conference. does this mean you dont put much value in H2H? or is the seeding more reflective of the necessary flexibility in seeding?

February 16, 2009 10:43 AM
Jeff said...

Head to head is overrated as far as the Selection Committee is concerned (just ask Arizona State). I have Tennessee ahead because I expect them to win the SEC tournament. If LSU wins the conference tournament then they'll have the higher seed.


Remember, LSU is playing in the terrible SEC West, so you have to take their record with a grain of salt. Even if they finish with something like a 13-3 record (what I would currently project as their final record), that won't really be any better than a 12-4 in the SEC East. And Tennessee has the better out of conference resume.

The Sagarin and Pomeroy computer ratings are better judges of future seeding than the RPI, and both of them put Tennessee slightly ahead of LSU. Combine that with a Tennessee victory in the SEC tournament and you have the reason for Tennessee being a couple of seeds ahead.

February 16, 2009 11:08 AM
Anonymous said...

What's the situation for UAB? Do they have to win out and go to the conference finals? I'd think if they beat Memphis/lose at UTEP on the road, or lose to Memphis/beat UTEP on the road and win everything else, they're in. What does the committee do with a high RPI team that only has 1 good win (Zona)?

Also, I read one prediction that the MWC could get 5--that's crazy, right?

February 16, 2009 1:14 PM
Jeff said...

I would agree that five bids for the MWC is probably crazy. Four is certainly a possibility, but five seems impossible. The only way they'll get five will be if their top four teams (Utah, UNLV, BYU and San Diego State) really play well the rest of the way, and then somebody comes out of nowhere to win the automatic crown. But there's just no way I can see five teams being viable at-large teams from the MWC.

As for UAB, I do think that they're very much in the race. They do have a real problem with a lack of big wins, but they are hanging on without any bad losses. Any bad losses from here on out will probably kill their resume.

If UAB wins every game remaining other than Memphis, they'll probably make the Tournament if they can get lucky during the conference tournaments. They can't have Georgias and San Diegos stealing bids.

If UAB can win every game the rest of the regular season (including Memphis), then they'll have a much more realistic Tournament scenario entering the C-USA tournament.

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the RPI, because teams can get deceptive RPIs and then their fans won't understand why they didn't make the Tournament. A better ranking to look at is Sagarin, which currently has UAB 44th.

February 16, 2009 4:32 PM

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