Another Breslin Center Shocker

Penn State 72, #9 Michigan State 68
If you had told me six months ago that halfway through the Big Ten regular season the Spartans would be 7-2 and in first place, I'd have said that sounds about right. If you told me that those two losses would come at home against Northwestern and Penn State, the two worst Big Ten teams over the past few seasons, I'd have had you committed. What's even more remarkable about those two results is that Michigan State is about the last team you'd expect to come out flat against a bad team. They are so experienced that you expect them to be more professional than this. But once again then just got out-hustled and out-worked by an inferior team at home. This loss doesn't change their spot at the top of the Big Ten, but it significantly hurts their chances of a 1 seed. Even if they win the Big Ten regular season and tournament title, they're going to have to go nearly undefeated the rest of the way to get that top seed. For Penn State, this win is massive for their at-large hopes. They're in a big tie for third at 6-3, and they're now a very solid 17-5, and 5-5 against the RPI Top 100. The RPI is 67th, Pomeroy is 57th and Sagarin is 49th, so they would most likely miss the Tournament if the season ended now. But they're unquestionably a serious bubble team, and it will be hard to reject an 11-7 Penn State team. Their upcoming schedule really is brutal, though (at Michigan, Wisconsin, at Purdue, Minnesota, at Illinois, at Ohio State). If they can survive that stretch by going 3-3, I think that will improve their computer numbers and put them in a position to make the Tournament with a strong finish to the season.

#21 Villanova 71, Cincinnati 50
I was a bit surprised how big the margin of victory was here. This Cincinnati team is very talented, but they can be flummoxed by pressure. For the first ten minutes of the game or so, Cincy looked like the better team by applying solid pressure and playing within themselves. But when Villanova turned up the defensive intensity, Cincy just panicked. They rushed passes, they rushed shots, and in the end it turned into 17 turnovers and 29% shooting. I sometimes wonder why Villanova doesn't apply that full court press for all 40 minutes, because they're deep enough at the guard position to pull it off, and they're just a much better team with the press. Jay Wright seems to prefer to play straight up at the beginning of games, only turning on the press after his boys are losing. Either way, Villanova now moves up 6th in the Big East at 5-3, and they'd definitely be in the Tournament if the season ended now. Providence is currently fifth, and they won't stay there, so if Villanova can keep pace they'll end the season fifth in the Big East, and that will lock up a bid. Their remaining schedule really isn't that bad, so they shouldn't have too many problems. Cincy, on the other hand, is really starting to get in trouble. They're ninth in the standings at 4-5, but they're 10th in the Sagarin ratings and probably 10th (maybe 11th) in the Big East pecking order overall. With a 4-8 record against the RPI Top 100 they've got a lot of ground to make up. They have something of a must-win game tomorrow night against Notre Dame. If they can't win that one then their Tournament chances really get bleak.

Dayton 69, Saint Joseph's 58
This game was a bit of a reality check for Saint Josseph's. They had gotten off to a 5-0 start in Atlantic Ten play, and were starting to actually make people forget that they'd gone 7-7 in their out-of-conference games for a reason. The RPI is 66th, but both Sagarin and Pomeroy put them in the 90s, so their Tournament chances really aren't very good. They may end up having the A-10 Player of the Year, but they're most likely going to earn an automatic bid to make the Tournament. Dayton, on the other hand, is really going to start sneaking up on people soon. Their schedule hasn't been wonderful, but they're a very impressive 20-2. The Atlantic Ten isn't what it was last season, but it's still one of the best mid-majors. Dayton is 4-1 against the RPI Top 100, with their one game against the RPI Top 50 being a win over Marquette that looks a lot more impressive now than it did at the time. The computer numbers all look great now, but the one worry is that the Sagarin PREDICTOR is 76th and Pomeroy puts them 80th. In other words, their resume may be a Tournament resume now, but this isn't quite a Tournament team. They've won a lot of close games and are due for some losses. But if Dayton can continue on this hot run long enough, they can definitely earn a Tournament bid. If the season ended now they'd probably be something like a 7-10 seed, which means that they do have a little room for error.