Kentucky Loses Again

Mississippi State 66, Kentucky 57
Kentucky's losing streak increases to three, and this is probably the most surprising loss of any of them. They actually outplayed Mississippi State in this one, forcing a lot of turnovers and out-rebounding their opponents, but in the end they just could not hit their shots from the field. These losses drop them to 5-3, and a tie with South Carolina for third place in the SEC East. The RPI has ballooned to 67th, Sagarin puts them 50th (ELO_CHESS OF 66th, PREDICTOR OF 27th) and Pomeroy 30th. In other words, they're a Tournament quality team, but they have lost enough games that they probably do not have a Tournament resume at this point. Kentucky's out-of-conference resume is reasonable, but not great, so it's not clear if a 10-6 SEC record will earn them a Tournament bid. They've got to get to 11-5 to feel confident about a bid. Mississippi State, meanwhile, moves to 5-2 in the SEC. This doesn't feel like a team that should be hanging in the at-large debate, but with good three-point shooting and one of the nation's best inside defensive disruptors in Jarvis Varnado, they're hanging in there. They are still only 3-4 against the RPI Top 100, and all of their computer rankings are around 80th-90th in the nation, so there's no question that they wouldn't be in the Tournament if the season ended now. But if they can get to 11-5 in the SEC they're going to have to be taken seriously on Selection Sunday.

Ohio State 80, #13 Purdue 72, OT
A tough week for Purdue fans, as this loss came with news that Robbie Hummel has actually been suffering from a stress fracture in his back. He didn't play in this game at all, and will not be completely healthy all season long. It's going to be about managing his minutes and trying to keep him as healthy as possible. Even another monster game out of JaJuan Johnson (30 points on only 16 shots from the field) wasn't enough to overcome a motivated Ohio State team. A loss here would have dropped the Buckeyes to 5-5 in the Big Ten with a really tough upcoming schedule. Now they're back to 6-4 knowing that 10-8 will probably get them a Tournament bid. They're 6-5 against the RPI Top 100 and the computer numbers are all very good. Purdue, meanwhile, slips to a tie for second place at 6-3 in the conference. They still have a chance to win the Big Ten, but I think their higher priority has to be getting everybody healthy for a Tournament run. Without Hummel they are a really thin team, especially on the inside. If Hummel is out and Johnson gets himself in foul trouble, I don't know how this team is going to get any rebounds at all.

San Diego State 68, UNLV 66, OT
A tough result for UNLV at home. They just could not hit a shot, even a potential game-winner from star Wink Adams. They now slip into a tie for third in the Mountain West at 5-3, with an RPI that has fallen out of the Top 50. Things are getting complicated in the Mountain West because of solid play out of the likes of San Diego State and TCU. The conference is good enough to get three teams into the Tournament easily if the rest of the conference laid down and took their lumps. But with chaos at the top of the conference, it's possible that they'll all beat up on each other and cause the conference to only get two teams, or possibly even one. San Diego State had a weak out-of-conference performance, but they're now 6-2 in the Mountain West with an RPI up to 46th. They have zero RPI Top 100 wins outside of conference play, which means that they're got an uphill battle to an at-large bid. But this win could go a long way if they're still on the bubble on Selection Sunday.