Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Clemson Sends Maryland To The Brink

#13 Clemson 93, Maryland 64
You had to know that Clemson would come out strong after a tough loss to Virginia, and they came out and controlled this game from the start. The biggest difference was Trevor Booker, who was just a man among boys against Maryland's inferior front line. Clemson had lost four of their last eight games entering this one, but the resume still remains very strong. They're not going to make a run at a 1 seed unless they go undefeated for the rest of the regular season, but they can very realistically make a run at a 2 seed. Many of the other top teams nationwide have bogged down over the past couple of weeks, and the good seeds are out there for any team able to seize them. As for Maryland, I explained their Tournament situation here. I argued that they needed to beat either Clemson, Duke, North Carolina or Wake Forest, as well as each of their other two remaining regular season games, to be in position to make the Tournament. Well, one down and North Carolina is up next. If they lose to the Tar Heels on Saturday afternoon then they're going to need to win at least four of their next five games against tough ACC opponents, which is very unlikely. This North Carolina game is a must-win.

Vanderbilt 77, Kentucky 64
It's tough to ever win in peculiar Memorial Gym, even when Vanderbilt is having a mediocre season, and once again Kentucky is a victim. Jodie Meeks gets all of the press because he puts up huge numbers, but I have believed all season that Patrick Patterson is their most important player, and it's really been tough on Kentucky without him. It's not clear to me when he'll be back, but it's an important question because Kentucky has about as tough of an end to the regular season as one can have in the SEC (Tennessee, at South Carolina, LSU, Georgia, at Florida). They are now 7-4 in the SEC, 6-7 against the RPI Top 100, and have rapidly plummeting computer numbers. They'd probably actually be out of the Tournament if the season ended now. They're going to need at least three wins in those final five games. As for Vanderbilt, they're still alive for an at-large bid, but even with this win they're still a long shot. This win pushed their RPI inside the Top 100, and they're 5-6 in the SEC. It's going to be tough for any 9-7 SEC team to make the Tournament, which means that Vandy has to win out to be in the discussion entering the SEC tournament.

West Virginia 79, Notre Dame 68
Notre Dame had actually been showing a little life over their last couple of games, and there's no shame in losing at West Virginia, but when you've put yourself in such a deep hole you can't afford any losses at all. They are 5-8 against the Big East, and an atrocious 8-11 against the RPI Top 200. They've got to win at least three of their final five regular season games or they lose any chance to earn an at-large bid. And considering the fact that a 7-11 Notre Dame team would probably need to win five games in five nights to win the Big East tournament, they'd be clearly destined for the NIT. On the other side of the coin, West Virginia continues to slowly move up the Big East pecking order. As I've said before, the only thing that would keep West Virginia out of the Tournament would be failing to reach 9-9 in the Big East, and they are now nearly there at 7-6. They'll be a complete lock when they get to ten wins.

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