Texas Is In A Freefall

Nebraska 58, #17 Texas 55
This might have been the most surprising result of the day. I give a lot of credit to Nebraska doing a great job of working the clock on offense and just squeezing Texas to death slowly. I've talked about how Nebraska seems to always get a big scalp each season, and while you can argue that the Missouri win is suddenly turning into a big scalp, this is unquestionably a big win. As always, the question with Nebraska is consistency, and they still have losses to Iowa State and UMBC holding down their resume. Their weak schedule will be held against them as well, as they're only 4-4 against the RPI Top 100. But they're still in the discussion, and they can be a serious at-large contender if they can get to ten wins in the Big 12. With Texas, they're another conundum. They seem like a team whose whole is less than the sum of their parts, and while I admit I only watch around one out of every four Texas games, they just seem to have bad chemistry. It's possible that we all underrated the way that D.J. Augustin kept this team together. They are suddenly 4-4 in the Big 12 with an RPI near 40th. You can argue that right now they're actually a bubble team. And they don't have an easy game coming up, with a dangerous Oklahoma State team coming to town. Texas could soon be in real danger of missing the Tournament.

Kansas State 65, Texas A&M 55
Speaking of the Big 12, I continue to wonder why Kansas State is not mentioned in anybody's bubble discussion. After an 0-4 start to the Big 12 season they have now won five straight. They are 15-7 overall with a nice 3-2 record against the RPI Top 50. With an RPI of 69th and a Sagarin of 55th, they wouldn't be in the Tournament if the season ended now, but both the Sagarin PREDICTOR and Pomeroy think that this is around the 30th best team in the nation, so they're really a team to look out for. They'll probably be favored in four of their final seven games, and if they can instead win five of seven to get to 10-6, they'll be a very tough team to keep out of the Tournament. The one thing they still need is a marquee win, but they'll get their shot next Saturday when Kansas comes to town. For Texas A&M, they might as well start packing their bags for the NIT right now. They've fallen to 3-6 in the Big 12 with a 1-5 record against the RPI Top 50. If they're going to make any kind of a run at the Tournament it's got to start now, because they're running out of time.

Arizona 87, Oregon 77
Arizona is one of those teams that refuses to go away. With this win they move back over .500 to 6-5 in the Pac-10, and are probably sixth in the pecking order of a conference that will most likely get five Tournament teams. They've got a few very nice wins (Washington, Gonzaga, Kansas), but they're also only 6-8 against the RPI Top 100. The computer numbers are within shouting distance of at-large territory, so they'll be a serious bubble team if they can just take care of business the rest of the way. They'll have to get to at least 10-8 to make the Tournament, but that's not too much of a long shot looking at their remaining schedule. But I've been down on this team all year because they just are not consistent, and they just do boneheaded things to blow games. They're bound to do something like commit 18 turnovers and lose to Washington State. In other words, I'm not putting Arizona in my bracket until they earn it, and I'm never going to assume that they're going to take care of business when they need to.