Two More Top Ten Teams Go Down

Florida State 65, #10 Clemson 61
This is one of those games where you appreciate player psychology. You had a Florida State team hungry for a legitimizing victory in the ACC going up against a Clemson team that spent the past few days admiring their beat down of Duke. Florida State wanted the win more, and it made the difference in the final minutes of this game. Clemson is a very big team, but they got completely outworked on the boards in a way I haven't seen this season. Florida State actually had as many offensive rebounds (15) as Clemson had defensive rebounds. With a 5-3 record in the ACC to go with wins over Cincinnati, California and Florida in the out-of-conference, I think Florida State has pushed into fifth in the ACC pecking order, slightly ahead of Boston College. I'd be shocked if the ACC gets less than six Tournament teams, so fifth place is a good place to be. For Clemson, I think we're starting to figure out what this team is. They're one of the best teams in the country, but they have a ceiling. I just don't see this team earning a 1 seed, and I just don't see them as a serious Final Four threat. An elite team would have seized on Clemson's remaining schedule (after the big Duke win) to make a run at the ACC title, but Clemson chose to lose their first game, against an inferior Florida State team. That's not what 1 seeds do. They feel like a 3 seed right now.

Duquesne 72, #9 Xavier 68
With all of the chaos in the Top Ten this week, Xavier actually had a great shot of moving all the way into the Top Five in the polls if they had taken care of business here. I had actually listed them as a dark horse team in the 1 seed discussion. But they'd survived enough close wins that they were due to finally have a tough loss. And a tough loss this was, as Xavier made a valiant effort towards the end of this game, fighting back from a double-digit deficit with about five minutes to go to make this one a real nail-biter that came down to the final 30 seconds. And don't forget that Duqesne is actually a pretty good team that I still have listed as a long shot bubble team. They're 15-7 with a 6-3 record in the Atlantic Ten. Their 1-5 record against the RPI Top 100, and the weak computer numbers (88th in the RPI, and around there in both the Sagarin and Pomeroy rankings) mean that they're still looking way, way up at the bubble, but this was the type of game they had to win to work their way into the discussion. With the weak bubble this year the Atlantic Ten has a real shot at a third Tournament team, and Duquesne has as good of a shot at that third bid as anybody.

Charleston 77, Davidson 75
Davidson will be an interesting case study if they falter in the SoCon tournament. I want to give you two resumes to chew on: Team A is 18-6 overall, 12-1 in a good mid-major conference, is 6-4 against the RPI Top 100, and has an RPI of 28th. Team B is 20-4 overall, 13-1 in a not-quite-as-good mid-major conference, is 1-3 against the RPI Top 100, and has an RPI of 46th. Both teams were double-digit seeds in last year's Tournament and won at least one game. Which one would you say has a better shot at an at-large bid this season? I bet you'd say Team A, right? Well, Team A is Siena and Team B is Davidson. Do you know anybody who considers Siena a more realistic at-large team than Davidson? I think part of has to do with people not realizing how good the MAAC is (they have an RPI better than the WAC, CAA and MAC, among others). But I think most of it has to do with everybody being in love with Stephen Curry and his magical Tournament run last year. And that's a mistake. I think that both Siena and Davidson should be in the Tournament, but I think Siena is the better team, and I think it will be a minor injustice when Davidson almost surely gets the better seed. I'm ranking Davidson higher in the BP65 not because I think they deserve it, but because I think they will get it, and the BP65 is a predictor and not what I think should happen.