The bubble is rapidly shrinking. For the first time all season I have less than 50 teams out of the BP65 that still have a chance at an-large bid. The next BP65 will be out after Saturday night's games:
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. OKLAHOMA (BIG 12)
1. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. UConn
2. Louisville
2. Duke
2. MEMPHIS (C-USA)
3. UCLA (PAC-10)
3. Clemson
3. Villanova
3. Kansas
4. Wake Forest
4. Missouri
4. GONZAGA (WCC)
4. Arizona State
5. Florida State
5. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
5. Marquette
5. TENNESSEE (SEC)
6. West Virginia
6. LSU
6. Washington
6. Purdue
7. Syracuse
7. Illinois
7. UTAH STATE (WAC)
7. California
8. BYU (MWC)
8. Texas
8. Dayton
8. Wisconsin
9. Utah
9. Boston College
9. Florida
9. South Carolina
10. BUTLER (HORIZON)
10. Minnesota
10. Arizona
10. Ohio State
11. San Diego State
11. Kentucky
11. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
11. Georgetown
12. SIENA (MAAC)
12. UNLV
12. Saint Mary's
12. Kansas State
13. CREIGHTON (MVC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
14. VMI (BIG SOUTH)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
15. CORNELL (IVY)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Miami (Fl), Virginia Tech, Temple, Cincinnati, Baylor, Oklahoma State, UAB, USC
Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Maryland, Rhode Island, Providence, Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, Texas A&M, George Mason, Illinois State
Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
NC State, Duquesne, Saint Joseph's, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Northeastern, Houston, UTEP, Tulsa, Niagara, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Stanford, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Saint Louis, St. John's, Hofstra, Central Florida, Cleveland State, Wisconsin-GB, Buffalo, Wyoming, Washington State, Alabama, Arkansas-LR, Portland, Boise State
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9 comments:
OK, here goes...
1. I still don't see how a 27-5 UConn team gets edged out for a #1 seed to by a 27-6 Michigan State team (assumes a worst case scenario that UConn goes 3-3 the rest of the way, and a close to best case scenario that Michigan State goes 7-1 the rest of the way).
2. Minnesota? Georgetown? St. Marys? Wow. That IS a thin bubble.
You have to project a few more losses for Minnesota, don't you? I assume you're saying they're in anyway.
Georgetown has been in free fall for a solid month and a half -- they're 4-9 in 2009. They still have to play Marquette, Louisville and Villanova in their next 3 games. The team won't even pass to Greg Monroe any more!
I hope you're right about St. Marys and they can get by until Patrick Mills gets back. Their record is already kind of borderline.
It's another one of those situations where these teams aren't worthy, and they'll likely be crowded out by some team back in the pack rising to the occasion, but it's sure hard to see who that might be. Cincinnati? Virginia Tech? Both worthy teams, but their schedules could kill them. Maybe USC. They've struggled on the road, but they have mostly home games remaining.
Well, you're right, it's definitely a thin bubble at this point. But that said, remember that the bubble will shrink during the conference tournaments. What happens when another Georgia and San Diego win their conference tournaments? It's going to be the Georgetowns and Minnesotas of the world that pay.
The UConn situation has to do with them just not looking like a very good team for both games that they've been without Dyson. I need to see them play well before I give them a 1 seed. Remember that the last five-to-ten games matter a lot more than the previous 20 in the minds of the Selection Committee, so you can't just look at the overall resumes in a vacuum.
Assuming your bracket is a projection of what will happen to some degree, I'd rather have Rhode Island as last in rather than a terribly struggling team like St. Mary's.
The Rams are hot having won 7 of their last 8 (only loss @Temple). They very easily could win out their last four. If they do, I'm pretty sure they're in. If they win three and one of those three is Dayton (assuming a loss @Duquesne isn't too crazy), I still think they're in. A 22-9 team with wins over both Dayton and Temple (along with Penn St. and VCU) and an RPI around 50 would be interesting to say the least with the bubble where it is. A 3-1 finish gets them to having won 10 of their last 12, while if they win out, they will have won 11 of their last 12.
Michigan as a 1 seed?
UCLA as a 3?
Wake only a 4?
AHHHHH HaaHaaHaaHaaHaaHaaHaaHaa...
AHHHHHHHHHH HAAAAAAAAA HAAAAAAA HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HAAAAAAAAAAAAA HAAAAAAAAAAAAA HAAAAAAAAAAAAA HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
This is the lamest attempt at a bracket projection I've seen so far....
Sorry, I obviously meant Michigan State. Hard to avoid mistakes when I've got so many tears of laughter in my eyes.....
CSURamfan, before I get to your comment I must say something about your username... is there a reason why you root for Colorado State and Rhode Island? It's an interesting combination. Usually when posters root for multiple teams they are geographically similar (for example, people who have a favorite Big East and a favorite A-10 team). CSU and URI is a new combination, and I'm curious how it came about.
Anyway, in response to your question, I do agree that Rhode Island is in a rapidly improving position. At first glance, the 19-8 overall record and the 8-4 A-10 record are a very nice combination. At the same time, all of the computer rankings have them in the exact same position: between 61st and 63rd in the nation. A team can possibly earn an at-large if their RPI is out of the Top 50, but not if their Sagarin is out of the Top 50.
The reason for Rhode Island's low computer numbers are that they really haven't beaten anybody good. They have zero wins over likely at-large teams (Temple, Penn State and VCU are all nice wins, but none will wow the Selection Committee). And they do have one weak loss (Richmond). So they wouldn't be in the Tournament if the season ended now, as I believe you agree.
As for your statement about winning four straight games to end the season: I don't think it would definitely put them in the Tournament, but I think that it would put them in the Tournament if they parlayed it with a solid performance in the A-10 tournament. For example, a win over the likes of Duquesne, Saint Louis or St. Joe's in the quarterfinals followed by a close loss to Xavier or Dayton in the semifinals. That would make them 24-9, and I think that would put them in the Tournament.
If Rhode Island loses one of their remaining regular season games then they probably need to make it all the way to the A-10 tournament finals. They need that win over Dayton next week, or else a win over Dayton or Xavier in the A-10 tournament. It's very hard to make the Tournament if you have zero wins over at-large teams, even with a gaudy record like Rhode Island has.
That makes sense. So Dayton is pretty much a must-win then.
I grew up in the Northeast so I adopted several of the Northeastern teams (Syracuse, Vermont, Binghamton, and most recently Rhode Island.)
However, I go to college at Colorado State, so obviously I root for my home school. I dislike a bunch of the A-10 teams (Xavier and Umass in particular) and so when I saw an A-10 team sharing my schools' mascot Ram, I decided to adopt them as one of my own. My deepest loyalties lie with the CSU rams, however, not the Rhode Island ones (and also Syrcause--both my parents' graduated from their so I'm a big Orange fan.)
Sorry that got kind of rambly. Anyway, hopefully Rhode Island will win out--I'd rather see them then the 9th team from the Big East or 7th from the ACC. I mean, I can watch those guys on ESPN whenever. It's nice to see different schools for a change.
How much does the team's recent performance affect the committee? I'd think winning ten or eleven out of their last twelve would matter to a significant degree when all these other bubble teams are losing almost every other time out. Sure, URI didn't win big ones to start the year, but they played close against good teams (loss @Duke by 3 for instance or loss @Providence by 1) and now they've gelled. Does the committee think through things like that?
I want to respond to Anonymous. I assume your beef with the UCLA seed that you think it's too high? If you believe they will win the Pac10, and the Pac10 is the 2nd rated conference, why would a 3 seed be too high? Their competition the rest of the season is weak, so they should have a nice record in their last 10 games. The Sagarin rankings currently have them 18th, which supports your view, but the Pomeroy rankings have them at 7th.
Why shouldn't UCLA be a 3?
Here's a hint...
They aren't very good!
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