Snake Bit Teams Get Another Chance

Wisconsin 63, #21 Illinois 50
I talk about "snake bit" teams because a lot of fans just don't like to admit that there's a lot of luck involved in small sample sizes. I'll talk about this more in an extended post sometimes, but too often fans feel like there is a reason behind every win or loss. If a team wins by one point, we build up all of the little things that they did to "will their way to victory." In reality, once a game is close in the final minute, it's essentially a 50-50 game. The better, clutch teams will win more than half the time, but it's still maybe a 60-65% probability. If a team wins five straight games in the final 30 seconds then they're probably a very clutch team, but they're also a bit lucky, and they're due for some close losses. Wisconsin, on the other hand, had five straight losses in the final 30 seconds. Much of it is their fault, as their defense has been atrocious late in games. But there's also luck - things like opponent's FT%, and getting killed by a number of off-balanced low-probability shots. Still, a loss is a loss, and Wisconsin has ruined their chances of a good seed in the Tournament, but I still view them as a better than 50-50 shot at a Tournament bid. They are now 4-6 in the Big Ten, and due to an outstanding strength of schedule (#3 in both RPI and Sagarin) they will have good computer numbers in the end. For Illinois, they have now lost four straight road games in the Big Ten. They played a very weak out-of-conference schedule (Pomeroy puts it at 277th overall), so unlike Wisconsin they won't make the Tournament at 9-9 in the Big Ten. At 6-4 they've got a very realistic path to 10-8, but they're going to have to figure out how to win on the road at some point.

Florida State 62, Georgia Tech 58
If there's been a team as snake bit as Wisconsin in the major conferences, it's been Georgia Tech. They have lost four ACC games where they led in the final five minutes (Boston College, NC State, Maryland, Virginia), three of which that went into overtime. The most egregious was against NC State, where the Yellow Jackets led by ten points with 4:30 left in the game, blew it all, then grabbed the lead in overtime, only to eventually lose the game. They did not have a late lead here against Florida State, but they did tie it up with about 5:30 to go only to lose again. Now, there is another difference between Georgia Tech and Wisconsin, and that's overall ability of the team. Wisconsin is good enough that they can afford some bad-luck losses while only suffering a lower seed in the Tournament. But Georgia Tech would be a marginal bubble team even if things went according to plan. Instead they're 1-7 in the ACC, and they're long shots for the NIT at this point. Obviously this game meant more for a Florida State team that is now 4-3 in the ACC, with an RPI of 28th, a Sagarin of 43rd, and a Pomeroy of 58th. Those computer numbers are a bad omen for their future, but they'd be in the Tournament if the season ended now. If Florida State can knock off one of the ACC's Big Four to get to 8-8 overall, they're going to be pretty safe for a Tournament bid. If they can't get a marquee win then they might need to make it to 9-7.

Michigan 71, Penn State 51
It was pretty easy to pick Michigan to win this game. They were coming off an embarrassing whipping at the hands of Purdue and had a fired up Manny Harris vowing to make up for his ejection, while Penn State was coming off a surprising upset at Michigan State. But I was still very surprised at how the Nittany Lions just rolled over and died in the second half of this game. At one point the Wolverines went on a 16-3 run, and the game was over after that. What's surprising about this lack of effort by Penn State is that it's not like they've won anything yet. If the season ended now they probably wouldn't be in the Tournament, despite the 6-4 Big Ten record. That win over Michigan State is big, but it doesn't completely make up for the fact that they had zero RPI Top 100 wins in their out-of-conference schedule. Overall, they're 5-6 against the RPI Top 100, with an RPI of 66th. They get some more opportunities for solid wins with Wisconsin, Minnesota and Illinois all coming to town. Even a 10-8 Big Ten record will not be a Tournament resume for Penn State unless they do well in the Big Ten tournament. For Michigan, they have a chance to make a splash today at UConn, but with four straight road losses in the Big Ten it's unlikely that they'll be able to steal yet another Top Ten upset. They have two wins in true road games, and those came against Oakland and Indiana. The 5-6 Big Ten record and 14-8 overall record don't look great, but the computer numbers are right on the border for a Tournament bid (RPI of 50th, Sagarin of 48th, Pomeroy of 73rd). It's possible for Michigan to make the Tournament even if they only finish 9-9 in the Big Ten, but Selection Sunday would be less stressful for Michigan fans if they can get to 10-8.