It's that time of year: the BP65 is now coming out twice weekly. The next one will be out after Saturday night's games have completed.
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCONN (BIG EAST)
1. OKLAHOMA (BIG 12)
1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
2. UCLA (PAC-10)
2. Duke
2. Pittsburgh
2. Louisville
3. MEMPHIS (C-USA)
3. Clemson
3. Wake Forest
3. Villanova
4. Marquete
4. GONZAGA (WCC)
4. Kansas
4. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
5. Illinois
5. TENNESSEE (SEC)
5. Missouri
5. Arizona State
6. Syracuse
6. Purdue
6. Florida
6. Florida State
7. West Virginia
7. BYU (MWC)
7. Texas
7. Dayton
8. Minnesota
8. Washington
8. UTAH STATE (WAC)
8. LSU
9. BUTLER (HORIZON)
9. Utah
9. Boston College
9. California
10. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
10. Ohio State
10. Georgetown
10. Wisconsin
11. Miami (Fl)
11. Kentucky
11. Kansas State
11. UNLV
12. SIENA (MAAC)
12. South Carolina
12. USC
12. Saint Mary's
13. CREIGHTON (MVC)
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
14. VMI (BIG SOUTH)
14. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
14. CORNELL (IVY)
14. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (AMERICA EAST)
15. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
16. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
Other teams considered, but that missed the cut:
Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Providence, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, UAB, San Diego State, Arizona
Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Maryland, Rhode Island, Saint Joseph's, Temple, Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, Northeastern, Tulsa, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Other teams with a decent shot, but that really need to improve their resume:
Duquesne, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Northwestern, George Mason, Houston, Wisconsin-GB, Niagara, Buffalo, Evansville, Stanford, Washington State, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Boise State
Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Georgia Tech, NC State, La Salle, Richmond, Saint Louis, Rutgers, St. John's, Iowa, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Hofstra, James Madison, Central Florida, Southern Miss, UTEP, Cleveland State, Fairfield, Bradley, TCU, Wyoming, Alabama, Arkansas, Arkansas-LR, Portland, Nevada
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
4 comments:
How do you see the loss of Dyson affecting UConn's seeding? Will this give Pittsburgh the edge for the rest of the Big East season so they grab the #1 seed instead? And if UConn does slip just a little and allows Pitt to come in as the top seed out of the Big East, will UConn remain a 1 seed and bump Michigan State down to a 2?
Well that's hard to say right now because we haven't seen UConn play a whole game without him. We'll find out today when they play Seton Hall. I'll need to watch that game to see how they play without him. Dyson may be the 2nd leading scorer, but Hasheem Thabeet has been playing very well lately, and I've always felt like Jeff Adrien was the most important player on the team.
If UConn wins a share of the Big East title and loses a tight Big East tournament title game against Pitt then I'd say they're probably going to get a 1 seed (in addition to Pitt). Michigan State needs to win the Big Ten regular season and tournament titles, and then hope that there is a clear best team in the Big East and ACC. If there ends up being a two-headed monster that shares either of those conference titles and fights it out in the conference tournament title, they're probably going to end up with a leg up on Michigan State.
As I've said before, I still think there's a less-than-50% chance that Michigan State gets a 1 seed, but they're sitting on the line right now because they've got the plurality of the vote, so to speak. I don't see a clear alternative to them right now. Certainly teams like Pitt, Louisville, Duke, Clemson, UCLA and others will get a chance to make their case.
Oh, I understand that there's no data to work with yet. But this IS Basketball PREDICTIONS, after all.
Pitt currently has higher Sagarin & Pomeroy rankings than Michigan State, their chief competition just took a major hit, and they were within a hairs breadth of UConn in the rankings anyway. The most likely results are either a tight two team race in the Big East, or a second place UConn team that has a stronger resume than MSU. The natural conclusion is that the most likely top 4 seeds are UNC, Oklahoma, Pitt & UConn at this point.
As for your other possibles, I think UCLA, Duke, Louisville & Clemson have shown that they aren't yet in that top tier, although a number of them have schedules that could allow them to go on a regular season run and appear to be strong. The key is that they would have to both dominate in their stretch run, and then follow it up with a championship from their conference tourney. Hmmm. As I think about it, none of them is likely to do that, but it's equally unlikely that NONE of them will get on a hot streak.
Honestly, the reliance on data is one of the reasons I think there aren't more comments on your predictions of the field. There's rarely anything to disagree with -- all the rankings make sense. It's hard to argue with rankings that seem pretty strictly based on current record plus the results from the best online predictors. So I'll throw some opinions out there.
Yes, I am aware that predictions are needed... my point was simply that I wanted to withhold my opinion until after the Seton Hall game. I don't need a new BP65 for another six hours, after all. And my conclusion is that Pitt is the new favorite to win the Big East. I'm thinking of still giving Michigan State that last 1 seed, and dropping UConn to a 2. I just don't see how a team can only have six players and earn a 1 seed. Obviously UCLA is out after two straight dreadful performances.
As for people not being able to disagree, I don't think that's it. See, I know who is coming to my blog, and I know when people are linking from team message boards. So people tend to have lots of posts disagreeing... on other websites.
For example, just under two weeks ago there was a thread on the Butler message board furious that I only had them as a 10 seed. One of the posters called my predictions a joke since I had the preposterous situation of Missouri in the Tournament and Virginia Tech out. I enjoy looking back on comments like that...
Anyway, I think it's more a combination of that there are a LOT of posts and that there aren't a lot of comments to begin with. Comments tend to be contagious.
I do hope for more, because I do enjoy the dialogue.
Post a Comment