Florida State Keeps On Rolling

Florida State 80, Miami (Fl) 67
Florida State is 0-3 against North Carolina, Duke and Wake Forest this season, but they're now 7-1 against the rest of the ACC, and are quietly building a very solid resume. They're now 10-6 against the RPI Top 100, and the RPI is up 21st. There are still a wide range of seeds available to the Seminoles, as I could easily see them getting anywhere between a 3 and a 11. They're most likely going to be in the 4-8 seed range, but there is a lot of room for improvement if they can finish strong. Miami, meanwhile, is in a free fall. They've lost eight of their last ten games, and find themselves 4-8 in the ACC and 5-10 against the RPI Top 100. They will have no chance at the Tournament at 6-10, which means that they've got to win at least three of their final four regular season games to even still have a chance at an at-large bid entering the ACC tournament.

Penn State 38, #16 Illinois 33
In general, the Big Ten gets a bad reputation as a conference with bad offense. It comes from a general misconception among casual fans that points per game are the way to judge offenses and defenses. In fact, it's points per possession, and Big Ten games simply have fewer possessions than the other top conferences, and the conference also has many of the nation's best defenses. For example, Pomeroy rates Wisconsin as the 20th best offense in the nation when adjusting for number of possessions and opponent, despite the fact that they only score 64 points per game. But that said, these two offenses stunk in this game. Both teams had as many turnovers as made baskets, and neither team shot better than 30% from the field. Just very ugly, and it was a missed chance for Illinois to really firmly put themselves in the Tournament. At 9-5, two more wins will lock them into the Tournament, but it's hard to see even a 10-8 Illinois team missing out. Penn State, meanwhile, continues to hang in the bubble picture. They are now in fourth place at 8-6 in the Big Ten, and are 6-8 against the RPI Top 100 with an RPI of 58th. Despite the strength of the Big Ten, I think that Penn State needs to get to 11-7 to make the Tournament because of their weak out of conference resume. But they're definitely still in this thing.

Ole Miss 81, Tennessee 65
Every time I think Tennessee finally has their act together, they play a game like this. The half court defense was bad, and the rebounding was bad also. Just an all around bad night for Tennessee. The Vols still have solid computer numbers, and are 7-4 in the SEC, but they're only 7-9 against the RPI Top 100. In their five remaining regular season games they've got to play all three of their main SEC rivals on the road, and they've got to win at least one of them. It's hard to see a 9-7 Tennessee team earning an at-large bid. As for Ole Miss, this win was about keeping their at-large hopes alive. They're 5-6, and if they can somehow win three or four games in a row they can potentially become a serious bubble contender. But I don't see it happening. The SEC is down to five teams with a reasonable shot at an at-large bid, and Ole Miss isn't one of them.