Arkansas Shocks Florida

Arkansas 80, #2 Florida 69
The word "shock" gets thrown around far too often in sports. The media often declares a team's loss "shocking" even when they were underdogs in Vegas. But this result is truly shocking. Florida has been dominating the SEC at a historic rate, and has been the far and away best team in the nation in every computer rating I saw. In fact, Florida has been so good this season that even after this loss they are still ranked #1 in both Pomeroy and the Sagarin PREDICTOR. Florida closed the final gap in this game down to 11 by going on a little run in the second half, but they never were really within striking distance.

In a game this out of character for these two teams over the course of the season, there's obviously more than one reason. Florida has been the best 3P% team in SEC play (41.7%) while Arkansas has been worst (26.3%), yet Arkansas (44.4%) out shot Florida (37.0%) behind the arc here. Florida's 22.7% turnover rate was their worst so far in SEC play this season. It goes on and on.

So what do we make of this game? Honestly, I don't want to make too much of it. One of the basic rules that I always talk about on this blog is not overreacting to this one game. Florida has been the best team in the country for three months. And they had one clunker. One sample size matters more than the other. Unfortunately, their next game will be on Saturday against an atrocious Mississippi State team. They don't even have to play that well to win by 30. But if for some reason Mississippi State manages to lose by less than 15 then maybe there really is something to be worried about. But Florida fans shouldn't worry yet.

This is a massive victory for Arkansas. It's their first big scalp of the season, and it helps wipe out some of their bad losses (South Carolina, Texas A&M and Arizona State). They are now 3-7 against the RPI Top 100, and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is up to 58th. They'd still be an NIT team if the season ended now, but they're now a real bubble team. At 5-4 in SEC play, they'll need to get to at least 11-7 to earn an at-large bid. If they go 11-7 and then win a pair of games in the SEC tournament, I think that will put them in a pretty good position. They'll be on the road next, at Vanderbilt on Saturday and at Auburn on Wednesday.

#3 Michigan 76, #10 Ohio State 74, OT
This was just a thrilling game. Neither defense put up much of a fight before the final few minutes, and it was end-to-end scoring. Ohio State had a better offensive efficiency (1.16 PPP) than they've had in any Big Ten game so far this season. And Michigan's 1.19 PPP? Ohio State previously hadn't given up more than 1.01 PPP in a Big Ten game so far this season.

The end of this game came down to a Trey Burke/Aaron Craft duel. The final two minutes of regulation and the entirety of overtime felt like a one-on-one game between those two. The problem is, Burke is the better player. The effect of Craft trying to do too much was that DeShaun Thomas, OSU's best scorer by far, didn't take a shot in the final seven minutes of the game. That just can't happen. Burke also showed that despite Michigan's team-wide defensive issues, he can play some really nice individual defense. His block on Craft late in overtime, in particular, was just outstanding.

But despite the loss, Ohio State has to feel really good about this game. Going to overtime on the road means that, when you take reffing into account (as well as Michigan's 58.3% three-point shooting), Ohio State was probably the better team. Offensive consistency has been an issue for them this season, and this was the best the offense has looked all season. They also got a much broader offensive effort. LaQuinton Ross was one who stood out, scoring 16 points on 7-for-10 shooting off the bench.

Michigan remains in contention for the Big Ten regular season title, which could come down to their home game against Indiana on March 10th. They have a tough few days coming up, though, with a road game at Wisconsin on Saturday followed by a road game at Michigan State on Tuesday.

Ohio State, now 7-3 in Big Ten play, needs to beat Indiana on Sunday to stay in touch in the Big Ten title race. Considering their remaining schedule, it's unlikely that they'll earn a share of the Big Ten regular season title, but they're still in contention for a 2 or 3 seed on Selection Sunday.

Southern Illinois 64, Wichita State 62
This Wichita State slide is starting to get serious. They've lost three straight games in which their offense has completely abandoned them. They have hit 37.4% of their two-point attempts during this streak, compared to a season average of 50.8%, and they have failed to break 1 PPP in any of the three games, despite beating that mark in eight of their nine previous games. It's a team effort - nobody is scoring efficiently.

Jalen Pendleton was the star for Southern Illinois here. He only scored eight points all game, but four of those were the only points scored by either team in the final minute. And Pendleton hit the game winning shot with two seconds left. TJ Lindsay led SIU with 14 points, including 4-for-6 shooting behind the arc.

Wichita State was ranked in the Top 15 of both human polls just a couple of weeks ago, but this three game losing streak has dropped them perilously close to the bubble. They are now 19-5 overall and 8-4 in conference play, with wins over VCU, Iowa State, Southern Miss and Creighton, along with bad losses to Evansville, Tennessee, Northern Iowa and now Southern Illinois. Their RPI is 39th and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is 53rd. They'd still probably be an NCAA Tournament if the season ended now, but with very little room to spare. They probably need to get to 12-6 in conference play to stay in the Tournament. The Shockers will try to break this losing streak on Saturday, against Missouri State.

Southern Illinois moves to 2-10 in Missouri Valley play with this win. It's their first win over a Pomeroy Top 50 team since beating this same Wichita State team a couple of seasons ago. Their next game will be on Saturday at Indiana State.