Maryland Knocks Off Duke

Maryland 83, #2 Duke 81
This was an awfully exciting game for what might be the final Duke game in College Park for a while. The story of this game was Alex Len, and it almost bothers me how well he played, because it makes me wonder where this has been all year. I've talked a lot about how Len tends to look unstoppable for about five minutes at a time, before disappearing for 15-20 minutes. But here? He was awesome for 40 minutes. He scored 19 points (on 6-for-8 shooting) with 9 rebounds, but more importantly he shut down Mason Plumlee (4 points on 2-for-7 shooting with 3 rebounds, and fouling out after 33 minutes on the floor).

Other than Plumlee being made invisible, Duke actually played fairly well in this game. Seth Curry was white hot all night (25 points on 11-for-17 shooting), and Quinn Cook had a nice game also (18 points, 6 assists and 4 steals). But with Ryan Kelly out and Mason Plumlee shut down, Duke got basically nothing from their front line. And on the road, that meant that they were in a tight tussle, and Duke's six game winning streak was snapped.

As far as six game winning streaks in the ACC go, Duke's was about as lame as it comes. It says a lot about how down the conference is. Only three of the six wins were against Pomeroy Top 100 teams, and all three of those were at home. Duke still hasn't won a true road game against a Pomeroy Top 100 team all season. And despite Duke's lofty RPI numbers (they're still first in the RPI), their Sagarin ELO_SCORE was fifth even before this loss. And that's why I just don't understand the case that you see in most places that Duke and Miami are both going to get 1 seeds (it's what the mock Selection Committee came up with this week, and it's also what I've seen in most other brackets - even after this Duke loss, Joe Lunardi is still projecting it). That's ridiculous to me. Whichever team wins the ACC tournament will have a case for a 1 seed, but there's a pretty good chance that neither will earn a 1 seed. Both are overrated. Duke will try to bounce back on Thursday, at Virginia Tech.

Maryland, finally, has a nice win. They had come into this game 1-7 against the RPI Top 80, with the one win coming over NC State, a win that looks more mediocre by the day. But now they have a real, legitimate win, and a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that is going to move into the Top 50. It's not certain, but it's likely that they'd be a Tournament team if the season ended now. At 6-6 in ACC play, they need to get to 9-9 to have a good shot for an at-large bid heading into the ACC tournament. The Terps will play next on Tuesday, at Boston College.

UCLA 88, Stanford 80
You can make a good case that UCLA didn't deserve this win. Stanford had ten more offensive rebounds and eight fewer turnovers, and it's pretty rare that a team loses a game where they had 18 extra possessions. But Stanford just could not hit a jumper all night, finishing up 5-for-23 behind the arc. All night the Stanford fans kept waiting for a big shot that just never came. Meanwhile, the best player on the floor for either team was Shabazz Muhammad, who had 25 points on 9-for-14 shooting.

Having lost four of seven games coming into this one, UCLA had been falling closer and closer to the bubble as the pressure has really started to build on Ben Howland. Bill Walton isn't the only person affiliated with UCLA who would like to see Howland out. This win should help relieve some of the pressure, though, pushing them to 9-4 in Pac-12 play and 8-6 against the RPI Top 100. If they can get to 12-6 in Pac-12 play then that should basically lock up an at-large bid. At 11-7, they might need to win a game in the Pac-12 tournament. The Bruins now have eight days to get ready for a road game at USC.

It's been a tough week for Stanford, falling at home to both USC and UCLA. They are now only 6-7 in Pac-12 play and 1-8 against the RPI Top 50, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that should drop out of the Top 50. They'd be an NIT team if the season ended now, and probably need to win four of their final five regular season games to get back into the NCAA Tournament. Next week they'll be on the road to play the two Oregon teams.

#10 Kansas State 81, Baylor 61
This game was just a rout. Kansas State led by as many as 12 points in the first half, and Baylor never seriously contended after that. The biggest contribution Bruce Weber has made to his new Kansas State team is cleaning up their sloppy turnovers. They were 9th in the Big 12 in offensive turnover percentage last season and are leading the conference this year (only 17.0%). And they've lowered that conference leading rate even further, committing only 6 turnovers, compared to 18 for Baylor. Kansas State also dominated the glass, pulling down 9 more offensive rebounds. 21 extra possessions plus better three-point shooting equals... well, a 20 point win.

Angel Rodriguez was in charge here, finishing with 22 points and 10 assists. Shane Southwell added 18 points on 6-for-9 shooting behind the arc. I've talked in the past about how the key to beating Baylor is limiting shot opportunities for Isaiah Austin and Cory Jefferson, and Kansas State did a fine job of that here as well. The two big men combined to go only 6-for-14 from the field. Baylor also got a mediocre Pierre Jackson performance (2-for-8 shooting, 9 assists, 5 turnovers).

Kansas State keeps pace in the Big 12 with this win, staying in a three-way tie with Kansas and Oklahoma State. They've already been swept by Kansas, though, and their win against Oklahoma State came at home. So that makes their season finale game at Oklahoma State a must-win for their Big 12 title hopes. But that's still weeks away. They'll play West Virginia on Monday, followed by a road game at Texas next Saturday.

Baylor drops to 16-9 overall and 7-5 in conference play, with wins over Kentucky, Oklahoma State and BYU, along with bad losses to Charleston and Northwestern. Their RPI is 53rd, though their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should still be in the Top 30. So despite that poor RPI, I don't think Baylor is a bubble team. If they can get to 11-7 in conference play then that should seal up their at-large bid.