Virginia Suffers Another Bad Loss

Georgia Tech 66, Virginia 60
Virginia continues to have one of the goofier resumes in NCAA basketball this season. You can argue that no teams plays to their competition more than the Cavaliers.Virginia is rated 38th in Pomeroy and 44th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR, and they are 5-0 against the RPI Top 100. But they now have six losses to RPI 100+ opponents - George Mason, Delaware, Old Dominion, Wake Forest, Clemson and now Georgia Tech. To put this in perspective, Virginia's 10-6 record against RPI 100+ opponents is worse than Norfolk State's 13-5 record (Norfolk State, however, is 0-5 against the RPI Top 100). But meanwhile, Virginia's 5-0 record against the RPI Top 100 is significantly better than Ohio State's 6-4 (of course, the Buckeyes are 11-0 against the RPI 100+ opponents).

What made this loss particularly perplexing was how it happened. Virginia's bad losses have typically come when they just couldn't buy a basket. They are now 3-6 this season when finishing with an eFG% under 49% and 12-0 when finishing with eFG% of 49% or better, but their 48.2 eFG% here was their best in any loss this season. This loss was actually a defensive loss - they allowed 1.05 PPP to the single worst offense in the ACC (Georgia Tech is the only ACC team scoring under .90 PPP in conference play). The Yellow Jackets torched them for a 58.1 2P%.

With Virginia's bad losses and the fact that the ACC is down, the Selection Committee is not going to tolerate a bad overall won-loss record from them. They need to go at least 10-8 in conference play to earn an at-large bid, and need to get to 11-7 to feel really good about their chances. They are 5-3 now, and will play Clemson on Thursday, followed by a road game at Maryland on Sunday. Georgia Tech, now 2-6 in ACC play, will face Florida State on Tuesday.

Iowa State 83, Oklahoma 64
Iowa State couldn't miss a shot here and Oklahoma couldn't make a shot. Iowa State's strong rebounding was surprisingly poor here (Oklahoma had 19 offensive rebounds, compared to 6 for Iowa), but it didn't matter. The Cyclones hit 11-for-27 behind the arc and missed only two free throws all game (16-for-18). In all, Iowa State had a 60.9 eFG%, compared to a 38.7 eFG% for Oklahoma. It was their second best shooting performance, and their second best eFG% against, in conference play so far this season.

Will Clyburn led Iowa State with 19 points on 7-for-10 shooting. Clyburn has shot 50% or better in each of his past four games, while averaging 21.3 points per game. For the season he's up to 15.0 points per game, with a 50.7 eFG%. Oklahoma, meanwhile, couldn't get any production from their starting lineup - none reached double-digit scoring. Steven Pledger, Romero Osby and Arnath M'Baye combined for 8-for-31 shooting from the field.

Iowa State moves to 6-3 in conference play, with wins over BYU, Kansas State, Baylor and now Oklahoma, along with a bad loss to Texas Tech. They'll be in good shape for an at-large bid if they go 10-8 or better in conference play and win a game in the Big 12 tournament. Their next game will be on Monday, on the road at Kansas State.

Oklahoma falls to 5-4 in conference play and 14-7 overall, with wins over Oklahoma State and Baylor along with iffy losses to Arkansas and Stephen F Austin. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE will be near 40th when the new numbers come out tomorrow. They'll be in decent shape for an at-large bid if they get to 10-8 or better in conference play. They'll come home for a massive game Saturday against Kansas.

#9 Syracuse 63, #25 Notre Dame 47
This game was never particularly competitive. Syracuse led by double-digits for nearly the entire second half. The Irish have good shooters, but they were ice cold here. Their 40.4 eFG% was their second worst shooting performance of the entire season (their 63-47 debacle against Georgetown was their worst). At the same time, the Irish couldn't stop an efficient Syracuse offense. As I've said many times before, Syracuse is a much better team when Michael Carter-Williams is a distributor first. He finished with 8 assists and only 3 shot attempts here. The result was 1.14 PPP, their second best offensive performance in Big East play this season (they had 1.15 PPP against Providence).

The Irish are now 6-4 in Big East play and 18-5 overall. They have wins over BYU, Kentucky and Cincinnati, along with bad losses to St. John's and St. Joe's. They are 6-5 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE near 25th. So they certainly seem like a pretty safe at-large team, particularly as that Kentucky win will start looking a lot better, but they need to make sure to get to at least 9-9 in Big East play and that won't be completely trivial. Their remaining schedule is fairly difficult. They still have a pair of games against Louisville, road games at Pitt and Marquette, and a home game against Cincy. The home game against Louisville is up next, on Saturday.

Syracuse remains in the thick of a wide open  Big East title race. Their schedule over the next couple of weeks is pretty easy, so they need to churn through games that they should win. Their next game will be on Sunday against St. John's.