North Carolina Routs Virginia

North Carolina 93, Virginia 81
This has to be one of the most bizarre results of the entire season. It's not that North Carolina won - that's no shock - but how they won. Virginia's defense isn't quite as ferocious as last season, but it's still one of the best in the nation - Pomeroy rates them 12th, and their 0.92 PPP allowed in conference play is second best in the ACC. Their problem, as it has been throughout the Tony Bennett era, is offense. They came into this game having failed to reach 1 PPP in half of their ACC games. Here? They were white hot, hitting 57% of their threes and finishing with a 69.8 eFG%. It's the best shooting performance Virginia has had since they routed Howard on January 4, 2011.

So with their best shooting performance in more than two years, how did Virginia lose? Their defense fell apart. PJ Hairston poured in 29 points on 8-for-14 shooting. Marcus Paige added 17 points, and Dexter Strickland had 12 points, 6 assists and only 1 turnover. North Carolina committed only 7 turnovers all game, and finished with 1.32 PPP. To put that in perspective, the last opponent to even score 1.15 PPP against Virginia was Boston College, on February 26, 2011. The last opponent to top 1.32 PPP against Virginia was Washington, who crushed the Cavaliers 106-63 during Thanksgiving week 2010. It's the first time in Tony Bennett's seven years of coaching anywhere that his team has scored 80+ points in a game and lost.

When a game is this bizarre statistically, the best advice is generally to just ignore it. I don't think Virginia suddenly forgot to play defense. They just had a terrible day, and UNC had a great day. But this result means a lot for Selection Sunday, regardless of what it means for judging how good these teams are. Virginia now drops to 8-4 in ACC play, knowing that they probably need to reach 12-6 to earn an at-large bid. At 11-7 they'll have to win at least a game or two in the ACC tournament. They will play at Miami on Tuesday, and so without a win there they'll have to avoid any more bad losses the rest of the season (something which has, of course, been an issue for Virginia all year).

North Carolina, meanwhile, moves to 7-5 in ACC play and 4-7 against the RPI Top 100. Their RPI is up to 28th, and their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should be even a little higher when the numbers come out tomorrow. They should be in decent shape for an at-large bid if they get to 10-8, and at 11-7 they'll basically be a lock. Their next game will be on Tuesday, on the road at Georgia Tech.

#15 Georgetown 62, Cincinnati 55
Considering the teams involved, this was probably a high scoring game. These are two of the top ten defenses in the country, according to Pomeroy, and neither is scoring greater than 1 PPP in Big East play. Throw in the slow tempos and this game had 49-47 written all over it. Georgetown's defense was sharp in this game, holding Cincinnati to a 35.2 eFG%. Cincinnati had 0.83 PPP and entered this game 0-4 when scoring fewer than 0.90 PPP, but like I said, Georgetown needed to find a way to score themselves. And they did... for about 11 minutes. From 6:30 in the first half to 15:00 in the second half, Georgetown shot 9-for-12 from the field, building up a 12 point lead.

After Cincinnati chipped away at the lead, the final 5 minutes of this game were as ugly as you thought they would be. Georgetown led by three points (after a Markel Starks three) with 5:30 to go. They did not hit another shot from the field the rest of the game. But by hitting enough of their free throws and shutting down Cincinnati, they ended up actually growing their final victory margin to seven.

Georgetown moves into the lead in the Big East at 9-3, though they certainly haven't been the best team. They've been grinding out a lot of close wins, and are fourth in the Big East in efficiency margin (+0.09 PPP). They've got a tough upcoming schedule, with a home-and-home with Syracuse, as well as road games at UConn and Villanova. So they could still earn a share of the Big East title, but I'd bet against it. More importantly, they're now making a strong case for a 3 seed, and perhaps even a 2 seed if they win the Big East tournament. The Hoyas get a breather on Wednesday against DePaul before a road game at Syracuse next Saturday.

Cincinnati has scored 0.86 PPP or fewer in three of their last four games, and since I've already told you that they are 0-5 when failing to score 0.9 PPP this season, you can deduce the results of those games. Their scoring woes can be summed up by Sean Kilpatrick, who has the ability to take over games when he's at his best, but who is 13-for-42 (including 4-for-24 behind the arc) in those recent three losses. The Bearcats are now only 7-6 in conference play and 9-7 against the RPI Top 100, with an RPI that is 37th. That sounds kind of bubble-ish, but the reality is that their Sagarin ELO_SCORE is 19th. They're nowhere near the bubble. Even if they fall to 9-9 in conference play, they should still be fine. Their next game will be on Thursday, at UConn.

Providence 71, #21 Notre Dame 54
This season really got aborted before it ever got started for Providence, with injuries and suspensions ruining a season that had high hopes over the summer. But now that they're at full strength, they have begun to find themselves and to play a little like they were supposed to. They've won four straight games, with three of those wins coming against teams that are either NCAA Tournament or bubble teams (Cincinnati and Villanova being the other two). Kadeem Batts had another big game (20 points, on 10-for-16 shooting, his third straight game with 20+ points), but the real star was Vincent Council, who nearly had a triple double (7 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists).

The Irish didn't do themselves any favors with 1-for-14 three-point shooting. But that poor shooting just served to expand the final victory margin for Providence. The Irish were badly beaten on the glass, and couldn't keep Providence from getting easy baskets. They deserved to lose. It's worth noting that even before this loss, Notre Dame was only 54th in Pomeroy (a more generous 41st in the Sagarin PREDICTOR). Their RPI is also 50th, and they're only 6-6 against the RPI Top 100, with a Sagarin ELO_SCORE that will fade to around 35th when tomorrow's numbers come out. They're not a bubble team, but they're closer to the bubble than most people realize. If Notre Dame ends up 10-8 or 9-9 in Big East play, which is very realistic when you consider their tough remaining schedule, then they will enter the Big East tournament without having their at-large bid sewn up. Their next game will be on Monday, at Pittsburgh.

Providence, despite the four straight wins, is only 6-7 in Big East play and 14-11 overall. If they can somehow take out Syracuse in the Carrier Dome on Wednesday, then maybe they'll start getting some bubble hype. But even that might not be enough. They're still a long shot.